2Q Mall REIT Foot Traffic Report

Download Full Thasos Q2 2017 Mall REIT Research Report (PDF, 20 pages)

Mall REITs Face Declining Foot Traffic

Based on the largest repository of high quality mobile phone location data after Google and Apple, our AI platform enables for the very first time visibility into foot traffic at malls with nearly 100% coverage.

During the earnings reporting cycle for the first quarter of 2017 (“1Q17”), for our clients in advance of scheduled quarterly earnings releases, we accurately predicted negative year-over-year (“YoY”) foot traffic trends at mall anchor stores, including Macy’s, Nordstrom, Dillard’s, and Sears. To quantify our accuracy level, the YoY growth in same-store transactions or same-store sales reported by mall anchors matched our predictions based on foot traffic to within 0.7% on average.

Unlike the anchor stores located on mall REIT properties, many of the REITs themselves do not have a means of counting the people who visit every individual mall they own. Instead, such REITs use people counters for a sample of malls as an indication of performance for their malls nationwide. In at least one case, a REIT appeared to use a sample of one mall to answer questions about foot traffic trends across all properties. During the 1Q17 earnings reporting cycle, in stark contrast to the mall anchor stores located on their properties, many mall REITs reported or suggested that YoY growth in foot traffic across their mall properties was positive. Our data does not support such conclusions.

Key Conclusions

Posted July 26, 2017

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